financial_model.xlsx

15 sheets

sheetinputs

section	key	value
meta	meta.currency	USD
meta	meta.weight_unit	lb
meta	meta.distance_unit	mile
meta	meta.founder_labor_excluded	True
meta	meta.founder_labor_caveat	Founder labor is excluded from cash costs by founder decision; not a recommendation to operate without compensation.
meta	meta.scope	setup, pilot, normalized steady-state only — no long-term forecast
meta	meta.margin_floor_pct	25
meta	meta.sensitivity_margins_pct	[15, 35]
meta	meta.geography	['Berkeley, California', 'San Francisco, California']
routes	routes.berkeley_milk_run	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'miles_per_run': 28, 'stops_per_run': 6, 'runs_per_week': 2, 'vehicle_cost_per_mile': 0.7, 'driver_hours_per_run': 4, 'labor_rate_per_hour': 18.0, 'capacity_lbs_per_run': 800}
routes	routes.sf_milk_run	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'miles_per_run': 42, 'stops_per_run': 8, 'runs_per_week': 2, 'vehicle_cost_per_mile': 0.7, 'labor_rate_per_hour': 18.0, 'driver_hours_per_run': 5, 'capacity_lbs_per_run': 1000}
materials	materials.cardboard	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'acceptance_rate': 0.92, 'prep_fee_nonconforming_per_lb': 0.08, 'processing_yield': 0.88, 'feedstock_credit_per_lb': 0.03, 'contamination_rate': 0.06}
materials	materials.paper	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'acceptance_rate': 0.9, 'prep_fee_nonconforming_per_lb': 0.07, 'processing_yield': 0.85, 'feedstock_credit_per_lb': 0.02, 'contamination_rate': 0.08}
materials	materials.plastic_hdpe	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'acceptance_rate': 0.85, 'prep_fee_nonconforming_per_lb': 0.12, 'processing_yield': 0.75, 'feedstock_credit_per_lb': 0.05, 'contamination_rate': 0.1}
materials	materials.wood_pallet	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'acceptance_rate': 0.8, 'prep_fee_nonconforming_per_lb': 0.1, 'processing_yield': 0.7, 'feedstock_credit_per_lb': 0.04, 'contamination_rate': 0.12}
tiers	tiers.starter	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'monthly_fee': 99, 'pickup_allowance_lbs': 120, 'overage_per_lb': 0.35, 'point_value_usd': 0.01, 'points_per_accepted_lb': 8, 'subsidy_cap_pct': 15, 'expiry_days': 90, 'freight_credit_monthly_cap': 15}
tiers	tiers.growth	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'monthly_fee': 249, 'pickup_allowance_lbs': 400, 'overage_per_lb': 0.28, 'point_value_usd': 0.01, 'points_per_accepted_lb': 10, 'subsidy_cap_pct': 25, 'expiry_days': 180, 'freight_credit_monthly_cap': 40}
tiers	tiers.enterprise	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'monthly_fee': 599, 'pickup_allowance_lbs': 1200, 'overage_per_lb': 0.22, 'point_value_usd': 0.01, 'points_per_accepted_lb': 12, 'subsidy_cap_pct': 35, 'expiry_days': 270, 'freight_credit_monthly_cap': 100}
tiers	tiers.custom	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'monthly_fee': 1200, 'pickup_allowance_lbs': 3000, 'overage_per_lb': 0.18, 'point_value_usd': 0.01, 'points_per_accepted_lb': 14, 'subsidy_cap_pct': 40, 'expiry_days': 365, 'freight_credit_monthly_cap': 250}
account_archetypes	account_archetypes.small_cafe	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'tier': 'starter', 'route': 'berkeley_milk_run', 'monthly_collected_lbs': 95, 'pickups_per_month': 4.33, 'material_mix': {'cardboard': 0.45, 'paper': 0.35, 'plastic_hdpe': 0.15, 'wood_pallet': 0.05}, 'redemptions_per_month': 0.4, 'avg_retail_product_value': 28}
account_archetypes	account_archetypes.mid_office	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'tier': 'growth', 'route': 'sf_milk_run', 'monthly_collected_lbs': 320, 'pickups_per_month': 4.33, 'material_mix': {'cardboard': 0.3, 'paper': 0.5, 'plastic_hdpe': 0.15, 'wood_pallet': 0.05}, 'redemptions_per_month': 1.2, 'avg_retail_product_value': 45}
account_archetypes	account_archetypes.large_retail	{'label_type': 'ESTIMATE', 'source_id': 'src-archetype-estimate', 'tier': 'enterprise', 'route': 'sf_milk_run', 'monthly_collected_lbs': 980, 'pickups_per_month': 8.66, 'material_mix': {'cardboard': 0.55, 'paper': 0.2, 'plastic_hdpe': 0.2, 'wood_pallet': 0.05}, 'redemptions_per_month': 3.5, 'avg_retail_product_value': 62}
manufacturing	manufacturing.label_type	ESTIMATE
manufacturing	manufacturing.source_id	src-archetype-estimate
manufacturing	manufacturing.conversion_cost_per_output_lb	0.18
manufacturing	manufacturing.middle_mile_cost_per_output_lb	0.12
manufacturing	manufacturing.marketplace_price_pct_of_retail	90
manufacturing	manufacturing.pooled_output_yield	0.72
manufacturing	manufacturing.secured_inventory_pct	0.15
manufacturing	manufacturing.preorder_deposit_pct	0.25
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.desk_organizer.output_lbs_per_unit	1.2
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.desk_organizer.retail_list_price	32
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.desk_organizer.manufacturing_cost_per_unit	8.5
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.desk_organizer.freight_per_unit	6
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.storage_bin.output_lbs_per_unit	2.5
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.storage_bin.retail_list_price	48
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.storage_bin.manufacturing_cost_per_unit	14
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.storage_bin.freight_per_unit	8.5
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.planter.output_lbs_per_unit	1.8
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.planter.retail_list_price	38
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.planter.manufacturing_cost_per_unit	10
manufacturing	manufacturing.sku_archetypes.planter.freight_per_unit	7
shipping	shipping.label_type	ESTIMATE
shipping	shipping.source_id	src-archetype-estimate
shipping	shipping.pass_through_markup_pct	0
shipping	shipping.credit_funded_from_margin_pct	2.5
rewards	rewards.label_type	ASSUMPTION
rewards	rewards.source_id	src-founder-2026-07-22
rewards	rewards.expected_redemption_rate	0.55
rewards	rewards.stress_redemption_rate	1
rewards	rewards.expiry_buckets_days	[90, 180, 270]
rewards	rewards.custom_max_expiry_days	365
setup	setup.label_type	ESTIMATE
setup	setup.source_id	src-archetype-estimate
setup	setup.legal_entity_setup	2500
setup	setup.insurance_annual	4800
setup	setup.software_annual	3600
setup	setup.warehouse_deposit	5000
setup	setup.equipment	12000
setup	setup.monthly_fixed_overhead	4500
setup	setup.pilot_months	3
capital_cases	capital_cases.lean_10k	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'capital_usd': 10000, 'accounts_at_launch': 8, 'months_runway_target': 6}
capital_cases	capital_cases.base_50k	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'capital_usd': 50000, 'accounts_at_launch': 25, 'months_runway_target': 12}
capital_cases	capital_cases.scale_250k	{'label_type': 'ASSUMPTION', 'source_id': 'src-founder-2026-07-22', 'capital_usd': 250000, 'accounts_at_launch': 120, 'months_runway_target': 18}
impact	impact.label_type	ESTIMATE
impact	impact.source_id	src-archetype-estimate
impact	impact.diversion_lbs_per_account_month	250
impact	impact.kg_co2e_avoided_per_lb_diverted	0.8
impact	impact.note	Impact metrics shown separately from cash economics; not monetized in margin floor.

sheetsource_register

source_id	label_type	description	url	as_of	quote_required
src-founder-2026-07-22	ASSUMPTION	Founder interview locked decisions		2026-07-22	False
src-irs-mileage-2026	FACT	IRS standard mileage rate reference	https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/standard-mileage-rates	2026-01-01	False
src-ca-min-wage-2026	FACT	California minimum wage	https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/minimum_wage.htm	2026-01-01	False
src-archetype-estimate	ESTIMATE	Archetype placeholder until provider research merged		2026-07-22	True

sheetsetup

item	value_usd
legal_entity_setup	2500
insurance_annual	4800
software_annual	3600
warehouse_deposit	5000
equipment	12000
monthly_fixed_overhead	4500
pilot_months	3

sheetcollection

route_id	cost_per_run	monthly_cost	cost_per_lb_capacity
berkeley_milk_run	91.6	793.26	0.1145
sf_milk_run	119.4	1034	0.1194

sheetmaterials

material_id	acceptance_rate	processing_yield	feedstock_credit_per_lb
cardboard	0.92	0.88	0.03
paper	0.9	0.85	0.02
plastic_hdpe	0.85	0.75	0.05
wood_pallet	0.8	0.7	0.04

sheetmanufacturing

metric	value
pooled_output_yield	0.72
conversion_cost_per_output_lb	0.18
sku_id	retail	mfg_cost	freight	max_subsidy
desk_organizer	32	8.5	6	8
storage_bin	48	14	8.5	12
planter	38	10	7	9.5

sheetshipping

archetype	freight_pass_through	freight_credits
small_cafe	1.58	0.35
mid_office	4.73	3.14
large_retail	13.8	7.41

sheetrewards

archetype	expected_reserve	stress_reserve	tier
small_cafe	11.24	20.44	starter
mid_office	94.35	171.55	growth
large_retail	521.58	948.33	enterprise

sheettiers

tier_id	monthly_fee	allowance_lbs	overage	expiry_days	subsidy_cap_pct
starter	99	120	0.35	90	15
growth	249	400	0.28	180	25
enterprise	599	1200	0.22	270	35
custom	1200	3000	0.18	365	40

sheetunit_economics

archetype	service_revenue	product_cash_revenue	shipping_revenue	total_revenue	variable_costs	product_cogs	middle_mile_cost	shipping_cost	reward_reserve	contribution	margin_pct	stress_margin_pct	passes_floor
small_cafe	99.86	4.62	1.58	106.05	88.19	2.38	8.61	1.58	11.24	13.56	12.78	13.81	False
mid_office	251.92	19.31	4.73	275.95	138.4	7.15	28.76	4.73	94.35	122.53	44.4	44.73	True
large_retail	608.33	65.64	13.8	687.77	356.7	20.85	88.64	13.8	521.58	289.01	42.02	43.14	True

sheetcapital_cases

case_id	capital	setup_cost	monthly_burn	runway_months	viable
lean_10k	10000	21600	3366.42	0	False
base_50k	50000	21600	957.55	29.7	True
scale_250k	250000	21600	0		True

sheetsensitivity

target_margin_pct	base_margin_pct	stress_margin_pct	base_passes	stress_passes
15	39.7367323759926	40.73316805926422	True	True
35	39.7367323759926	40.73316805926422	True	True

sheetpressure_tests

scenario_id	aggregate_margin_pct	passes_floor	account_margins_pct	factors
route_density_minus_30pct	29.55	True	{'small_cafe': -13.6, 'mid_office': 34.62, 'large_retail': 34.17}	{'route_stops_factor': 0.7}
conversion_cogs_plus_20pct	39.18	True	{'small_cafe': 12.35, 'mid_office': 43.9, 'large_retail': 41.43}	{'manufacturing_cost_factor': 1.2}
contamination_double	38.98	True	{'small_cafe': 12.28, 'mid_office': 43.74, 'large_retail': 41.19}	{'contamination_factor': 2.0}
combined_downside	28.24	True	{'small_cafe': -14.57, 'mid_office': 33.45, 'large_retail': 32.75}	{'route_stops_factor': 0.7, 'manufacturing_cost_factor': 1.2, 'contamination_factor': 2.0}

sheetimpact

metric	value
diversion_lbs_month	1249.1675
kg_co2e_avoided	999.3340000000001
note	Impact metrics shown separately from cash economics; not monetized in margin floor.

sheetdashboard

metric	value
founder_labor_caveat	Founder labor is excluded from cash costs by founder decision; not a recommendation to operate without compensation.
aggregate_margin_pct	39.7367323759926
stress_margin_pct	40.73316805926422
passes_margin_floor	True
passes_stress	True
pooled_feedstock_lbs	1249.1675
pooled_output_lbs	756.1274579999999
account_count	3
capital_viable_cases	2
reward_reserve_expected	627.1752300000002
reward_reserve_full_unexpired	1140.3186
worst_pressure_margin_pct	28.23913492630033

rendered view - raw file at https://sources.kavilabs.dev/financial_model.xlsx?raw=1